Packers vs Bears Wild Card Showdown: Who Has the Edge?
A historic rivalry takes center stage on Saturday night when the Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears in the NFC Wild Card round. With playoff stakes high and both teams trying to halt late-season skids, this matchup at Soldier Field blends tradition, urgency, and tight betting odds. Despite Chicago owning the higher seed, the betting market sees this game as nearly even.
Game Details & Odds
- Matchup: Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
- Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago
- Spread: Packers -1.5
- Total: 45.5 points
- Moneyline: Packers -118 | Bears +100
Green Bay enters as a 1.5-point road favorite, a notable sign of respect given Chicago’s strong 6-2 home record this season.
Who Is the Favorite?
Oddsmakers slightly favor the Packers, largely due to their postseason experience and recent head-to-head success. Green Bay has won 12 of the last 14 meetings and took down Chicago earlier this season. Even with a four-game losing streak, the Packers’ track record in this rivalry continues to influence the line.
Why Chicago
The Bears are led by second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who has emerged as a dual-threat playmaker. He finished the regular season with nearly 4,000 passing yards, 27 total touchdowns, and added consistent value with his legs. Running back D’Andre Swift anchors a balanced offense, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards and contributing in the passing game.
At home, Chicago has been reliable, and their offense has shown the ability to push the pace against strong defenses-an important factor in a close spread game.
Why Green Bay
Green Bay expects Jordan Love back after a concussion, and his efficiency has been a major strength this season. With a high completion rate and strong touchdown-to-interception ratio, Love provides stability at quarterback.
The Packers also lean heavily on Josh Jacobs, whose physical running style and red-zone production have fueled Green Bay’s offense. In their earlier win over Chicago, both Love and Jacobs played key roles, which helps explain why Green Bay is trusted as a slight favorite despite recent losses.
Picks & Prediction
The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Chicago vs. Green Bay picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend matchup on Saturday, and the data-driven simulations point toward offense.
- Best Bet: Over 45.5 total points
- Lean: Packers -1.5
The model projects 47 combined points, suggesting both teams find scoring opportunities. It also indicates that one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time, signaling a measurable edge rather than a coin flip.
Final Thought
This Wild Card clash feels like a classic NFC North battle-tight, emotional, and likely decided late. Chicago’s home field and young quarterback give them upset potential, but Green Bay’s experience and recent dominance in the rivalry keep the Packers in the driver’s seat. Expect a competitive game with enough offense to push the total over, and a final score that comes down to a single possession.