AFC Playoff Race: Chiefs, Ravens Closing In on Wild Card Spots 2026

AFC Playoff race heats Up chasing Wild Cards as Colts, Broncos and Patriots look strong, Chiefs and Ravens fights for the last spot while Cincinnati’s season slips away let’s analyze.

The AFC playoff picture is getting tighter with every passing week, and the battle for divisional and wild-card spots is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. At 8-2, the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots have built strong cases as top contenders, while the Steelers are hanging on to a fragile divisional lead. Behind them, the Chargers and Bills remain solid wild-card favorites, but the Chiefs and Ravens are closing fast-each capable of replacing struggling teams like Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s hopes are fading after another disappointing stretch. With momentum swings, tough road games, and tiebreakers looming large, the next few weeks will determine who rises and who falls in the AFC race.

Division winners

1) Indianapolis (8-2) – Most likely No. 1 seed

• Why: Best combination of record (8-2), point differential (+115), perfect at home (6-0) and excellent recent form (6-1 last 7). That’s the profile of a true top seed.

Risk: Road splits are 2-2, but overall momentum and net points favor them.

2) Denver (8-2) – Very likely a division winner and a top seed

• Why: Same record as Indy, solid point differential (+62), great recent run (W-7). Also 5-0 at home. Momentum is huge here.

Risk: Division matchups matter, but their win streak makes them hard to catch.

3) New England (8-2) – Also very likely a division winner

• Why: 8-2 with +73 net points, excellent on the road (5-0 away), and a long winning streak (W-7). That road record is rare and valuable.

4) Pittsburgh (5-4) – Vulnerable, but currently listed as division leader

• Why: They’re the leader in the AFC North in the snapshot, but their record and negative net points (-8) make them the most precarious division leader.

Risk: High. A 5-4 team with negative net points and a losing recent streak (L-1; last 5 = 2-3) can be overtaken by a hot wild-card team or a division rival (Baltimore is 4-5 but trending up). Pittsburgh can hold the division, but it’s far from locked.

Wild-card picture – who looks most likely

Right now the wild-card candidates in order of likelihood:

LA Chargers (7-3) – Very strong candidate for a wild card (and could still challenge for the division if Denver stumbles).

• Why: 7-3, +37 net points, perfect divisional record (3-0) and very good last-5 form (4-1). They’re consistent and win the divisional tiebreakers so far.

Buffalo (6-3) – Good chance to hold a wild card.

• Why: Positive net points (+51), strong home (4-1) and overall record. If Buffalo gets hot again they’ll lock a spot.

Kansas City (5-4) – Fighting for a spot; they can replace someone if they heat up.

• Why: Great point differential (+76) despite 5-4 record – that suggests they’re better than their record implies (close losses or bad timing). If they string a few wins, they’ll leap into the wild-card mix.

Risk: Their away record is weak (1-3), and they’ve been inconsistent.

Jacksonville (5-4) – Still alive but longer odds than KC/BUF/Chargers.

• Why: Same record as KC but negative net points (-15) and unimpressive underlying metrics. They need to tighten up their defense and win the winnable games.

Other teams like Houston (4-5) and Baltimore (4-5) are within mathematical reach but need a real surge and help elsewhere.

Who will be replaced by Kansas City or Baltimore?

• Kansas City replacing somebody: The most likely team KC would replace is Jacksonville or Pittsburgh (if Pittsburgh continues to slide). KC’s +76 differential means if KC finds consistency, they’ll overtake a 5-4 Jaguars who have negative differential and shaky results, or a 5-4 Pittsburgh that looks vulnerable.
• Baltimore replacing somebody: Baltimore is 4–5 but on a W-3 run in your snapshot – that momentum can carry them to 7-6 before others stabilize. Baltimore, if they keep winning, could take a late wild-card spot from Jacksonville or even Kansas City (if KC collapses). But Baltimore’s negative net points (-6) make it less certain than KC.

Bottom line: KC and Baltimore can both displace weaker 5-4 teams (Jacksonville, Pittsburgh) if they run the table in key matchups. KC has the higher ceiling because of point differential; Baltimore needs to keep the current winning streak going.

Can Jacksonville, Buffalo or Pittsburgh make it?

• Jacksonville (5-4): Yes, but they’re on thin ice.

Their record keeps them alive, but negative net points (-15) and inconsistent recent form make them a fragile pick. They need to string wins and take division games. If they don’t fix margin-of-loss issues, they’ll be leapfrogged.

• Buffalo (6-3): Yes – very likely.

6-3, +51 net points, and a solid home/road split make Buffalo one of the safer wild-card locks on this list.

• Pittsburgh (5-4): Possible but precarious.

They’re the current division leader in your snapshot, which gives them an advantage. But their negative differential and shaky recent form leave them vulnerable to teams gaining momentum (Baltimore or a resurgent KC).

Why Cincinnati will likely never get in?

• Record: 3-6 puts them multiple games behind wild-card pace.
• Point differential: -84 – that’s a huge red flag. Losing by large margins shows systemic problems on offense/defense.
• Form: 1-4 in last five; two-game losing streak.
• Divisional/Conference: They’re 2-0 in division per your table (that helps), but the overall trend and PF/PA make it extremely unlikely they catch up without several teams collapsing. Binomial odds are low from 3-6 unless they win out and multiple rivals lose – mathematically possible but practically unlikely.

Upcoming games and the decisive factors

You didn’t give a week-by-week schedule in the table, so I’ll highlight types of games that will decide this race:

1. Head-to-head divisional games. Whoever wins the head-to-head tiebreakers (Chargers/Denver, KC/Denver, Buffalo/NE, PIT/BAL) gains big advantage.
2. Road wins. New England’s 5-0 road record is huge – teams that can win away games will separate themselves. KC’s poor road mark (1-3) is a worry unless it improves.
3. Close game margins. Teams with big negative differentials (Jax, Cin) need to stop close losses and convert to wins. KC’s +76 suggests they win by more, so if their record catches up, they’ll be dangerous.
4. Injury and QB play. Any big injury to a QB or key defender will reshuffle odds quickly; depth separates contenders from pretenders.
5. Momentum/winning streaks. Denver and New England’s long win streaks make them hard to touch right now; Baltimore’s W-3 shows they can jump in quickly if they keep it up.

Division winners (Seeds 1-4)

• Indianapolis Colts (8-2) – No. 1 seed
• Denver Broncos (8-2) – No. 2 seed
• New England Patriots (8-2) – No. 3 seed
• Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) – No. 4 seed (but vulnerable)

Wild cards (Seeds 5-7)

• LA Chargers (7-3) – solid wildcard
• Buffalo Bills (6-3) – likely wildcard
• Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) – squeaks in over Jacksonville (tiebreakers / point differential)

Teams that miss but have chance to change: Jacksonville (5-4) – could be replaced by Baltimore if Baltimore keeps winning. Cincinnati (3-6) – almost certainly out.

Note: This projection assumes no catastrophic injuries and that teams with strong net point differentials (KC, IND, BUF) keep playing to form. Pittsburgh’s spot is the most likely to flip with a hot Baltimore or KC run.

Quick tactical reasons behind the picks

• Why Chargers over Jaguars: Chargers have a better record (7-3), better recent form, and zero divisional losses. Jaguars’ negative net points and recent form are red flags.
• Why KC can leap in: KC’s +76 net points mean their underlying performance is better than 5-4. Turn a couple of close games into wins and they vault up.
• Why Buffalo is safe-ish: Positive differential, solid record and consistent scoring make them a reliable wild-card pick.
• Why Cincinnati is likely out: Large negative point differential (-84) and poor recent results make comebacks very unlikely.

Final takeaway

1. Watch Pittsburgh closely. If they keep sputtering, the AFC North is up for grabs and that fourth division slot can flip.
2. Kansas City’s underlying numbers suggest they’re better than 5-4 – watch their next 2-3 weeks; if they win two straight, they’ll be back in the hunt.
3. Buffalo and Chargers look like the safest wild-card bets from this snapshot.
4. Cincinnati needs miracle help – practically speaking, move on from them for playoff picks unless you like longshots.
5. Divisional matchups and head-to-heads over the next 3-4 weeks will determine tiebreakers – those are the highest-leverage games.