2025 NFL Week 15 Picks & Predictions

This week’s slate features must-watch games, including Atlanta at Tampa Bay, Green Bay at Denver, and Minnesota at Dallas, where each outcome could dramatically impact the NFC and AFC playoff standings. Stay tuned as we break down the picks, predictions, key players, odds, and playoff implications for all the games this week.

Thu, Dec 11 – 8:15 PM ET (TNF)

Falcons @ Buccaneers – Pick: TB 24–17

• Why: Short week for ATL and Tampa’s defense + home crowd.
• Last game: ATL lost 37-9 – Darnold 249 pass | Robinson 86 rush | JSN 92 rec; TB lost 24–20 – Shough 144 pass | Neal 70 rush | Godwin 55 rec.
• Odds: TB -4.5 | O/U 44.5
• Playoff impact: TB stays in NFC South hunt with a win; ATL falls deeper out of contention.
• Sunday, Dec 14 – 1:00 PM ET (Early Window)

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears – Pick: CHI 20-16

• Why: Home-field edge for Chicago and Cleveland’s defense has been shaky.
• Last game: CLE lost 31-29 – Shedeur Sanders 364 pass | Pollard 161 rush | Fannin Jr. 114 rec; CHI lost 28-21 – Love 234 pass | Jacobs 86 rush | Watson 89 rec.
• Odds: CHI -7.5 | O/U 39.5
• Playoff impact: Bears keep slim hopes alive; Browns slip further from AFC wild-card picture if they lose.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals – Pick: BAL 27-24

• Why: Close, but Ravens’ balance and clutch defense in big spots.
• Last game: BAL lost 27-22 – Rodgers 284 pass | Henry 94 rush | Metcalf 148 rec; CIN lost 39-34 – Burrow 284 pass | Cook III 80 rush | Knox 93 rec.
• Odds: BAL -2.5 | O/U 52.5
• Playoff impact: Huge AFC North swing – loser drops ground in division/wild-card race.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs – Pick: KC 24-21

• Why: Arrowhead + Chiefs bounce-back urgency.
• Last game: LAC beat PHI 22-19 (OT) – Hurts 240 pass | Barkley 122 rush | A.J. Brown 100 rec; KC lost 20–10 – Stroud 203? (that was HOU), KC offense struggled last week per your list.
• Odds: KC -4.5 | O/U 41.5
• Playoff impact: Both need the win for seeding; Chiefs must avoid a skid.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Pick: BUF 31-27

• Why: Bills’ offense is hotter and more explosive.
• Last game: BUF won 39-34 – Burrow stat was for CIN but Buffalo’s last game you gave shows BUF 39, CIN 34 with Burrow 284; Buffalo had Cook 80 & Knox 93; NE won 33–15 – Drake Maye 282 pass | Singletary 68 rush | Hunter Henry 73 rec.
• Odds: BUF -1.5 | O/U 50.5
• Playoff impact: Bill’s win solidifies wild-card push; Pats remain competitive for better seed if they keep winning.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants – Pick: NYG 21-14

• Why: Giants’ defense and MetLife home advantage.
• Last game: WSH lost 31-0 – McCarthy 163 pass | Jones 76 rush | Addison 62 rec; NYG lost 33–15 — Drake Maye 282 pass | Singletary 68 rush | Hunter Henry 73 rec.
• Odds: NYG -2.5 | O/U 47.5
• Playoff impact: Both teams fighting to stay relevant – a Giants win keeps them closer to playoff contention.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles – Pick: PHI 30-14

• Why: Eagles at home and strong offense – Raiders struggle vs elite defenses.
• Last game: LV lost 24-17 – Bo Nix 212 pass | RJ Harvey 75 rush | Sutton 62 rec; PHI lost 22-19 (OT) – Hurts 240 pass | Barkley 122 rush | A.J. Brown 100 rec.
• Odds: PHI -11.5 | O/U 38.5
• Playoff impact: Eagles must protect home turf to stay high in NFC seedings.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Pick: JAX 34-14

• Why: Jaguars dominant at home and much stronger recent form.
• Last game: NYJ lost 34-10 – Brady Cook 163 pass | Jaylen Wright 107 rush | Mason Taylor 51 rec; JAX won 36-19 – Trevor Lawrence 244 pass | Etienne 74 rush | Brian Thomas Jr. 87 rec.
• Odds: JAX -12.5 | O/U 41.5
• Playoff impact: JAX solidifies AFC South and wild-card positioning.

Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans – Pick: HOU 31-16

• Why: Texans strong at home; Cardinals offense struggling.
• Last game: ARI lost 45-17 – Stafford/others big lines for LAR game; ARI gave up 167 to Nacua; HOU won 20-10 – C.J. Stroud 203 pass | Woody Marks 68 rush | Nico Collins 121 rec.
• Odds: HOU -9.5 | O/U 42.5
• Playoff impact: Texans push to secure/boost wild-card seeding.

Sunday, Dec 14 – Afternoon Window (4:05 / 4:25 PM ET)

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos – Pick: GB 26–23 (4:05 PM ET, CBS)

• Why: Packers offense rolling; close game in Mile High.
• Last game: GB won 28-21 – Love 234 pass | Jacobs 86 rush | Watson 89 rec; DEN won 24-17 – Bo Nix 212 pass | RJ Harvey 75 rush | Sutton 62 rec.
• Odds: GB -2.5 | O/U 43.5
• Playoff impact: Key wild-card seeding game for both clubs.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams – Pick: LAR 34-31 (4:25 PM ET, FOX)

• Why: Shootout expected – Rams’ offense is hotter; Rams at home.
• Last game: DET won 44-30 – Prescott 376 pass (vs DET was Dak; your dataset shows DET 44, DAL 30 – used for context) | Williams 67 rush | Lamb 121 rec; LAR won 45-17 – Stafford 281 pass | Corum 128 rush | Nacua 167 rec.
• Odds: LAR -5.5 | O/U 55.5
• Playoff impact: Huge NFC seeding/wild-card implications – both teams fighting for playoff spots.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints – Pick: CAR 24–21 (4:25 PM ET, FOX)

• Why: Panthers offense showing life; close divisional tilt.
• Last game: CAR won 31-28 – Stafford 243 pass | Hubbard 83 rush | Xavier Smith 82 rec; NO won 24-20 – Shough 144 pass | Neal 70 rush | Godwin 55 rec.
• Odds: CAR -2.5 | O/U 40.5
• Playoff impact: NFC South race remains open – winner gains momentum.

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers – Pick: SF 31–14 (4:25 PM ET, FOX)

• Why: 49ers dominant at home vs teams outside the elite tier.
• Last game: TEN won 31-29 – Shedeur Sanders 364 pass | Tony Pollard 161 rush | Harold Fannin Jr. 114 rec; SF won 26-8 – Brock Purdy 168 pass | Quinshon Judkins 91 rush | George Kittle 67 rec.
• Odds: SF -12.5 | O/U 44.5
• Playoff impact: 49ers keep control of NFC West and improve seeding.

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks – Pick: SEA 28-13 (4:25 PM ET, CBS)

• Why: Seahawks at home with strong recent defensive showings.
• Last game: IND lost 36-19 – Lawrence had led JAX earlier; your list shows IND 19 in that JAX game; SEA won 37-9 – Sam Darnold 249 pass | Bijan Robinson 86 rush | JSN 92 rec.
• Odds: SEA -13.5 | O/U 42.5
• Playoff impact: Seahawks strengthen NFC wild-card push.

Sunday, Dec 14 – 8:20 PM ET (SNF, NBC/Peacock)

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys – Pick: DAL 30-24

• Why: Cowboys’ home field and offense rebound after a tough loss.
• Last game: MIN won 31-0 – McCarthy 163 pass | Aaron Jones 76 rush | Addison 62 rec; DAL lost 44-30 – Dak Prescott 376 pass | Javonte Williams 67 rush (for DET earlier) | CeeDee Lamb 121 rec.
• Odds: DAL -5.5 | O/U 47.5
• Playoff impact: Dallas protects NFC seeding; Vikings need a win to stay in wild-card conversation.

Monday, Dec 15 – 8:15 PM ET (MNF, ABC/ESPN)

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Pick: MIA 27-20

• Why: Miami’s offense vs a middling Steelers defense – edge to Miami in a primetime spot.
• Last game: MIA won 34-10 – Brady Cook 163 pass | Jaylen Wright 107 rush | Mason Taylor 51 rec; PIT won 27–22 – Aaron Rodgers 284 pass | Derrick Henry 94 rush | DK Metcalf 148 rec.
• Odds: PIT -3 (per schedule you provided) | O/U 42.5
• Playoff impact: Both teams chasing key wins – Steelers protect home hopes; Dolphins push for wild-card position.

Week 15 is a playoff-defining stretch – with division races tightening and wild-card positioning fragile, nearly every Sunday matchup matters. Expect close games, heavy use of run-pass balance, and coaches playing for seeding.

This slate tilts toward home favorites and teams with hot offenses (Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Philadelphia). Upsets will decide several wild-card races – keep an eye on KC-LAC, BUF-NE and the late-afternoon NFC battles (GB-DEN, LAR-DET) for the biggest swing in playoff picture.